Mathematical modeling and dynamics of immunological exhaustion caused by measles transmissibility interaction with HIV host.

This paper mainly addressed the study of the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and analysed the effect of two different types of viruses simultaneously that cause immunodeficiency in the host. The two infectious diseases that often spread in the populace are HIV and measles. The interaction between measles and HIV can cause severe illness and even fatal patient cases. The effects of the measles virus on the host with HIV infection are studied using a mathematical model and their dynamics. Analysing the dynamics of infectious diseases in communities requires the use of mathematical models. Decisions about public health policy are influenced by mathematical modeling, which sheds light on the efficacy of various control measures, immunization plans, and interventions. We build a mathematical model for disease spread through vertical and horizontal human population transmission, including six coupled nonlinear differential equations with logistic growth. The fundamental reproduction number is examined, which serves as a cutoff point for determining the degree to which a disease will persist or die. We look at the various disease equilibrium points and investigate the regional stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points in the feasible region of the epidemic model. Concurrently, the global stability of the equilibrium points is investigated using the Lyapunov functional approach. Finally, the Runge-Kutta method is utilised for numerical simulation, and graphic illustrations are used to evaluate the impact of different factors on the spread of the illness. Critical factors that effect the dynamics of disease transmission and greatly affect the rate and range of the disease's spread in the population have been determined through a thorough analysis. These factors are crucial in determining the expansion of the disease.

Recent Surge in Mumps Cases in India: Need for Urgent Remedial Measures.

Mumps is a global public health problem caused by mumps virus, a member of paramyxoviridae family. MMR (Mumps, Measles, Rubella), an effective vaccine, has been incorporated into routine immunization schedules in over 100 countries. On the contrary, in India, vaccine against mumps has not been included in the routine immunization schedule as mumps is still not viewed as a significant public health problem by the government to warrant such an intervention. An increasing number of mumps outbreaks being reported from many parts of the country in the recent past, is matter of concern. The current paper reviews the situation of mumps in India including the recent surge, and discusses the remedial measures to contain these outbreaks. We conclude that inclusion of Mumps component as MMR vaccine in the Universal Immunization Programme of India along with strengthening surveillance is required to tackle the situation.

Early B cell transcriptomic markers of measles-specific humoral immunity following a 3rd dose of MMR vaccine.

B cell transcriptomic signatures hold promise for the early prediction of vaccine-induced humoral immunity and vaccine protective efficacy. We performed a longitudinal study in 232 healthy adult participants before/after a 3rd dose of MMR (MMR3) vaccine. We assessed baseline and early transcriptional patterns in purified B cells and their association with measles-specific humoral immunity after MMR vaccination using two analytical methods ("per gene" linear models and joint analysis). Our study identified distinct early transcriptional signatures/genes following MMR3 that were associated with measles-specific neutralizing antibody titer and/or binding antibody titer. The most significant genes included: the interleukin 20 receptor subunit beta/IL20RB gene (a subunit receptor for IL-24, a cytokine involved in the germinal center B cell maturation/response); the phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate-induced protein 1/PMAIP1, the brain expressed X-linked 2/BEX2 gene and the B cell Fas apoptotic inhibitory molecule/FAIM, involved in the selection of high-affinity B cell clones and apoptosis/regulation of apoptosis; as well as IL16 (encoding the B lymphocyte-derived IL-16 ligand of CD4), involved in the crosstalk between B cells, dendritic cells and helper T cells. Significantly enriched pathways included B cell signaling, apoptosis/regulation of apoptosis, metabolic pathways, cell cycle-related pathways, and pathways associated with viral infections, among others. In conclusion, our study identified genes/pathways linked to antigen-induced B cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, and clonal selection, that are associated with, and impact measles virus-specific humoral immunity after MMR vaccination.

Assessment of using Google Trends for real-time monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks: a measles case study.

Measles remains a significant threat to children worldwide despite the availability of effective vaccines. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the situation by leading to the postponement of supplementary measles immunization activities. Along with this postponement, measles surveillance also deteriorated, with the lowest number of submitted specimens in over a decade. In this study, we focus on measles as a challenging case study due to its high vaccination coverage, which leads to smaller outbreaks and potentially weaker signals on Google Trends. Our research aimed to explore the feasibility of using Google Trends for real-time monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks. We evaluated the correlation between Google Trends searches and clinical case data using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient across 30 European countries and Japan. The results revealed that Google Trends was most suitable for monitoring acute disease outbreaks at the regional level in high-income countries, even when there are only a few weekly cases. For example, from 2017 to 2019, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.86 (p-value< 0.05) at the prefecture level for Okinawa, Japan, versus 0.33 (p-value< 0.05) at the national level for Japan. Furthermore, we found that the Pearson correlation coefficient may be more suitable than Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for evaluating the correlations between Google Trends search data and clinical case data. This study highlighted the potential of utilizing Google Trends as a valuable tool for timely public health interventions to respond to infectious disease outbreaks, even in the context of diseases with high vaccine coverage.

Increased reports of measles in the Metropolitan City of Milan, northern Italy, September 2023 to March 2024.

Since late 2023, the Metropolitan City of Milan and surrounding areas (northern Italy) have been experiencing a resurgence of measles, with most cases detected starting from January 2024. During this brief period, we observed measles in travellers from endemic areas, participants in international events, vaccinees and healthcare workers. Indigenous cases have also been identified. Even though we have not yet identified large and disruptive outbreaks, strengthening surveillance and vaccination activities is pivotal to help limit the impact of measles spread.

Rapid molecular epidemiology investigations into two recent measles outbreaks in Israel detected from October 2023 to January 2024.

Between late 2023 and early 2024, two measles outbreaks occurred in Israel, each caused by importation of measles virus strains of respective B3 and D8 genotypes. In this study, we validate transmission pathways uncovered by epidemiological investigations using a rapid molecular approach, based on complete measles virus genomes. The presented findings support this rapid molecular approach in complementing conventional contact tracing and highlight its potential for informing public health interventions.

Global vaccine coverage and childhood survival estimates: 1990-2019.

Objective: To quantify the association between reduction in child mortality and routine immunization across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used child mortality and vaccine coverage data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used a modified child survival framework and applied a mixed-effects regression model to estimate the reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years associated with eight vaccines. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), measles, rotavirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines were significantly associated with an estimated 86.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 57.2 to 132.4) million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide. This decrease represented a 24.2% (95% CI: 19.8 to 28.9) reduction in deaths relative to a scenario without vaccines. The DTP and measles vaccines averted 46.7 (95% CI: 30.0 to 72.7) million and 37.9 (95% CI: 25.4 to 56.8) million deaths, respectively. Of the total reduction in child mortality associated with vaccines, 84.2% (95% CI: 83.0 to 85.1) occurred in 73 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, with an estimated 45.4 (95% CI: 29.8 to 69.2) million fewer deaths from 2000 to 2019. The largest reductions in deaths associated with these four vaccines were in India, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Bangladesh (in order of the size of reduction). Conclusion: Vaccines continue to reduce childhood mortality significantly, especially in Gavi-supported countries, emphasizing the need for increased investment in routine immunization programmes.

Temporal and spatial analysis of over 7,000 measles cases outbreak from 2018 to 2019 in the Brazilian Amazon.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to present a temporal and spatial analysis of the 2018 measles outbreak in Brazil, particularly in the metropolitan city of Manaus in the Amazon region, and further introduce a new tool for spatial analysis. METHODS: We analyzed the geographical data of the residences of over 7,000 individuals with measles in Manaus during 2018 and 2019. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to characterize various aspects of the outbreak, including the onset and prevalence of symptoms, demographics, and vaccination status. A visualization tool was also constructed to display the geographical and temporal distribution of the reported measles cases. RESULTS: Approximately 95% of the included participants had not received vaccination within the past decade. Heterogeneity was observed across all facets of the outbreak, including variations in the incubation period and symptom presentation. Age distribution exhibited two peaks, occurring at one year and 18 years of age, and the potential implications of this distribution on predictive analysis were discussed. Additionally, spatial analysis revealed that areas with the highest case densities tended to have the lowest standard of living. CONCLUSION: Understanding the spatial and temporal spread of measles outbreaks provides insights for decision-making regarding measures to mitigate future epidemics.

Analysis of Suspected Measles Cases with Discrepant Measles-Specific IgM and rRT-PCR Test Results, Japan.

We investigated clinically suspected measles cases that had discrepant real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) and measles-specific IgM test results to determine diagnoses. We performed rRT-PCR and measles-specific IgM testing on samples from 541 suspected measles cases. Of the 24 IgM-positive and rRT-PCR--negative cases, 20 were among children who received a measles-containing vaccine within the previous 6 months; most had low IgG relative avidity indexes (RAIs). The other 4 cases were among adults who had an unknown previous measles history, unknown vaccination status, and high RAIs. We detected viral nucleic acid for viruses other than measles in 15 (62.5%) of the 24 cases with discrepant rRT-PCR and IgM test results. Measles vaccination, measles history, and contact history should be considered in suspected measles cases with discrepant rRT-PCR and IgM test results. If in doubt, measles IgG avidity and PCR testing for other febrile exanthematous viruses can help confirm or refute the diagnosis.

A real-world study on the changing characteristics of measles antibodies in premature infants in China.

The waning of maternal antibodies may cause infants to lose protection against measles before receiving measles-containing vaccine (MCV). The aim of this study is to investigate the changing characteristics and influencing factors of measles antibodies in preterm infants (PT), and to provide scientific basis for optimizing MCV vaccination strategy of the target population. Blood samples were collected from PT and full-term infants (FT) at the chronological age (CA) of 3, 6, and 12 months. Measles antibodies were quantitatively detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Demographic and vaccination information were both collected. Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was used to compare the measles antibodies among different gestation age (GA) groups, and multiple linear regression was performed to identify the correlative factors for the antibodies. Measles antibodies of PT decreased significantly with age increasing before MCV vaccination. The positive rates of antibodies of PT were 10.80% and 3.30% at the age of 3 and 6 months, respectively (p < .001). At 12 months, the measles antibodies and seropositive rate in the infants who received MCV vaccination increased sharply (p < .001). Regression analyzes showed that the younger the GA or the older the age, the lower the antibodies at 3 months(p < .001，p = .018); while the lower measles antibody levels at 3 months and older age predicted the lower antibodies at 6 months(p < .001, p = .029). PT were susceptible to measles due to the low level of maternally derived antibodies before MCV vaccination. More efforts should be considered to protect the vulnerable population during their early postnatal life.

Impact of COVID -19 on expanded programme on Immunisation in District Dir lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Objectives: To study the impact of coronavirus disease-2019 on Expanded Programme on Immunisation in a rural setting. METHODS: The descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted in five union councils of District Dir Lower, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Data was collected from March to August 2020, which was a period of lockdowns in the wake of the coronavirus disease-2019, and then from March to August 2021. The sample comprised children aged <2 years. Data was analysed using SPSS 25. RESULTS: Of the 330 children, 210(63.6%) were boys, and 120(36.4%) were girls, and all 330(100%) were located in rural areas. First-phase data showed that the maximum coverage rate of immunisation was 258(78.2%) noted in OPV1(Oral Polio Vaccine) Penta1(Pentavalent vaccine), PCV10-1 (Pneumococcal pneumonia) and Rota 1(Rota Vaccine), and the least vaccination rate was 68.2% for Measle-1. In the second phase, 23% incline was noted in Measles-2 vaccination, followed by 16.3% in OPV2, Penta 2, PCV10-2 and Rota 2, 16% in Measles-1, 14% in OPV-3, Penta-3, PCV10-3, Rota-3 and IPV, 11.5% in OPV-1, Penta-1, PCV10-1, and Rota-1, and 10.6% in OPV-0 and BCG-0. CONCLUSIONS: Immunisation programme was affected by lockdowns during the active phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic.

[Pathological profile of S.P. Botkin infectious hospital during the siege of Leningrad (1941-1944)]. / Patologo-anatomicheskii profil' infektsionnoi bol'nitsy im. S.P. Botkina v gody blokady Leningrada (1941­1944 gg.).

The results of autopsies performed in the pathological department of the Infectious Diseases Hospital named after. S.P. Botkin during the siege of Leningrad (from September 8, 1941 to January 27, 1944). The structure of diseases of the deceased varied during different periods of the siege of Leningrad. In the first period (September-December 1941), diphtheria, dysentery, measles, typhoid fever, and scarlet fever prevailed among the diseases. The most common causes of death in the second period (April-December 1942) were typhus, dysentery, tuberculosis, lobar pneumonia, and typhoid fever. Nosological structure in the third period of the blockade (January 1943 - January 1944): tuberculosis, dysentery, cachexia, lobar pneumonia, infectious jaundice. The discrepancy between clinical and morphological diagnoses is most often noted for the following nosology: pulmonary tuberculosis, typhoid fever, pneumonia, stomach and hepatopancreatobiliary cancer, measles, influenza. The first period of the blockade was distinguished by a high specific proportion of examination of children's bodies - 51.2% of all autopsies; in subsequent periods, the specific share of autopsies of deceased adults (20-59 years) increased to 76.2%. The difference in the nosological structure and age groups of those who died during different periods of the siege of Leningrad was determined by the epidemiological situation in the city, social and living conditions and medical and organizational factors. Conducted in the pathological-anatomical department of the hospital named after. S.P. Botkin during the siege of Leningrad, pathological studies made it possible to timely establish the causes of deaths and identify the peculiarities of the course of infectious diseases against the background of cachexia. Regularly held clinical and anatomical conferences contributed to the reduction of defects in the diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases.

Measles - United States, January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious febrile rash illness and was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. However, measles importations continue to occur, and U.S. measles elimination status was threatened in 2019 as the result of two prolonged outbreaks among undervaccinated communities in New York and New York City. To assess U.S. measles elimination status after the 2019 outbreaks and to provide context to understand more recent increases in measles cases, CDC analyzed epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance data and the performance of the U.S. measles surveillance system after these outbreaks. During January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024, CDC was notified of 338 confirmed measles cases; 97 (29%) of these cases occurred during the first quarter of 2024, representing a more than seventeenfold increase over the mean number of cases reported during the first quarter of 2020-2023. Among the 338 reported cases, the median patient age was 3 years (range = 0-64 years); 309 (91%) patients were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status, and 336 case investigations included information on ≥80% of critical surveillance indicators. During 2020-2023, the longest transmission chain lasted 63 days. As of the end of 2023, because of the absence of sustained measles virus transmission for 12 consecutive months in the presence of a well-performing surveillance system, U.S. measles elimination status was maintained. Risk for widespread U.S. measles transmission remains low because of high population immunity. However, because of the increase in cases during the first quarter of 2024, additional activities are needed to increase U.S. routine measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination coverage, especially among close-knit and undervaccinated communities. These activities include encouraging vaccination before international travel and rapidly investigating suspected measles cases.

Contact tracing management of a measles case in a paediatric hospital: experience of the local public health unit, Portugal, January 2024.

In January 2024, a child was diagnosed with measles in a paediatric hospital in Lisbon. Of 123 contacts, 39 (32%) were not fully immunised, presenting a risk for a potential outbreak. The public health unit initiated control measures and identified challenges during the response, such as the lack of interoperability between information systems and accessing vaccination records. The lessons learned prompted changes to national contact tracing procedures for measles, further strengthening Portugal's preparedness.

Measles outbreak in the adult age group: Clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological features of the 11 patients admitted to the hospital.

The measles virus, also known as the morbillivirus, or MV, is a virus that infects humans. The goal of this research is to assess to adult cases of measles. Eleven patients thought to be confirmed cases of measles were enrolled in the investigation. Following the identification of symptoms of tiredness, fever, and rash in one soldier, the results of 10 more troops from the pertinent military group were assessed. The diagnosis was made based on the presence of serum immunoglobulin M (IgM) and positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results. When the control IgM, immunoglobulin G, and PCR findings were evaluated a fortnight after hospitalization, a cluster of 11 incidents was found. It is now necessary to address the issue of the cautious stance towards vaccination or the anti-vaccination sentiment that has grown increasingly popular, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, for both our nation and the entire world.

Health system barriers to the first dose of measles immunization in Ethiopia: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has made considerable progress toward measles elimination. Despite ongoing efforts, the country remains among those with the highest number of children missing their initial dose of measles vaccine, and the disease continues to be a public health emergency. The barriers within the health system that hinder the first dose of measles immunization have not been thoroughly investigated. This study aims to identify these barriers within the Ethiopian context. METHODS: Qualitative research, using purposive expert sampling to select key informants from health organizations in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia was employed. We conducted in-depth face-to-face interviews using a semi-structured interview guide. A thematic analysis based on the World Health Organization's health systems building blocks framework was conducted. RESULTS: The study uncovered substantial health system barriers to the uptake of the first dose of the measles vaccine in Ethiopia. These barriers include; restricted availability of immunization services, vaccine stockouts, shortage of cold chain technologies, data inaccuracy resulting from deliberate data falsification or accidental manipulation of data, as well as data incompleteness. CONCLUSION: Our research highlighted significant health system barriers to MCV1 immunization, contributing to unmet EPI targets in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that to accelerate the country towards measles elimination, there is an urgent need to improve the health systems components such as service delivery, information systems, as well as access to vaccine and cold chain technologies.

A measles IgM rapid diagnostic test to address challenges with national measles surveillance and response in Malaysia.

INTRODUCTION: A lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT) enables detection of measles specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody in serum, capillary blood, and oral fluid with accuracy consistent with enzyme immunoassay (EIA). The objectives of the study were: 1) to assess measles RDT inter-reader agreement between two clinic staff; 2) to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the measles RDT relative to standard surveillance testing in a low transmission setting; 3) to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of staff in clinics using the RDT; and 4) to assess the impact of RDT testing on the measles public health response in Malaysia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The clinic-based prospective evaluation included all suspected measles cases captured by routine measles surveillance at 34 purposely selected clinics in 15 health districts in Malaysia between September 2019 and June 2020, following day-long regional trainings on RDT use. Following informed consent, four specimens were collected from each suspected case, including those routinely collected for standard surveillance [serum for EIA and throat swabs for quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR)] together with capillary blood and oral fluid tested with RDTs during the study. RDT impact was evaluated by comparing the rapidity of measles public health response between the pre-RDT implementation (December 2018 to August 2019) and RDT implementation periods (September 2019 to June 2020). To assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices of RDT use, staff involved in the public health management of measles at the selected sites were surveyed. RESULTS: Among the 436 suspect cases, agreement of direct visual readings of measles RDT devices between two health clinic staff was 99% for capillary blood (k = 0.94) and 97% for oral fluid (k = 0.90) specimens. Of the total, 45 (10%) were positive by measles IgM EIA (n = 44, including five also positive by RT-qPCR) or RT-qPCR only (n = 1), and 38 were positive by RDT (using either capillary blood or oral fluid). Using measles IgM EIA or RT-qPCR as reference, RDT sensitivity using capillary blood was 43% (95% CI: 30%-58%) and specificity was 98% (95% CI: 96%-99%); using oral fluid, sensitivity (26%, 95% CI: 15%-40%) and specificity (97%, 95% CI: 94%-98%) were lower. Nine months after training, RDT knowledge was high among staff involved with the public health management of measles (average quiz score of 80%) and was highest among those who received formal training (88%), followed by those trained during supervisory visits (83%). During the RDT implementation period, the number of days from case confirmation until initiation of public response decreased by about 5 days. CONCLUSION: The measles IgM RDT shows >95% inter-reader agreement, high retention of RDT knowledge, and a more rapid public health response. However, despite ≥95% RDT specificity using capillary blood or oral fluid, RDT sensitivity was <45%. Higher-powered studies using highly specific IgM assays and systematic RT-qPCR for case confirmation are needed to establish the role of RDT in measles elimination settings.

Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.